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Economic forecasts have since been updated
Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2023: Key Messages
- Developing Asia’s outlook remains upbeat despite global challenges. The 2023 growth forecast is revised up from Asian Development Outlook September 2023’s projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is maintained at 4.8%.
- Developing Asia’s inflation is forecast to decline from 4.4% last year to a downward-adjusted 3.5% this year, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024.
- Downside risks are mainly associated with higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, which could trigger financial instability. Possible supply disruptions from El Niño and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could renew energy and food security challenges, and rekindle inflation.
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Developing Asia Outlook
- The Caucasus and Central Asia’s 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expectations of faster growth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightly to 4.6%.
- East Asia’s growth forecast for 2023 is revised up to 4.7% on a higher-than-expected third quarter growth in the People’s Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%.
- South Asia’s projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by stronger-than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024.
- Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand.
- The Pacific’s growth projections are unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, on the continued recovery of international tourism and the resumption of public infrastructure projects.
Table: GDP Growth and Inflation
Inflation
The region’s inflation forecast is revised down marginally to 3.5% for 2023 on a lower forecast for inflation in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Crucially for the region, rice prices rose to a 15-year high in mid-November as market expectations adjusted to India’s expanded restrictions on rice exports. The inflation forecast for 2024 is revised up marginally to 3.6% on upside shocks that are keeping price pressures higher than previously expected in Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, and the Republic of Korea.
- Inflation projections for the Caucasus and Central Asia are revised up to 10.9% for 2023 from September’s 10.6% forecast, and to 8.4% from 8.0% for 2024.
- Inflation forecasts for East Asia are revised slightly down to 0.9% from 1.0% for 2023, mainly on a downward adjustment to the PRC’s inflation projection.
- The inflation forecast for South Asia is unchanged at 8.6% for 2023, but revised up to 6.7% for 2024.
- The forecast for inflation in Southeast Asia is maintained at 4.2% for 2023, and revised up to 3.5% from 3.3% for 2024, due to possible food supply disruptions from climate risks, including from El Niño.
- Inflation in the Pacific is forecast decelerating to 4.9% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, unchanged from September’s projections.
Publication and Links
Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2023: Growth Upbeat, Price Pressures Easing
The Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic and development issues in developing countries in Asia. This includes forecasting the inflation and gross domestic product growth rates of countries throughout the region, including the People’s Republic of China and India.