Asian Development Outlook - July 2023 Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts have since been updated

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023: Key Messages

  • ADB is maintaining its growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8% this year, as robust domestic demand continues to support the region’s recovery. The growth forecast for next year is marginally revised down to 4.7% from a 4.8% estimate in April, as demand for the region’s exports of electronics and other manufactured goods is slowing.
  • Inflation in developing Asia is forecast at 3.6% this year, compared with an April forecast of 4.2%. The inflation outlook for 2024, meanwhile, is raised to 3.4% from an earlier estimate of 3.3%.
Profile photo: Albert Park

Join the conversation. #ADO2023

Latest Findings Download full presentation

Use the side arrows to toggle between the slides.

 

Developing Asia Outlook

  • Given balancing developments, growth forecasts for East Asia are maintained at 4.6% in 2023 and at 4.2% in 2024, for South Asia at 5.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024, and for the Pacific at 3.3% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
  • Growth prospects in the Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central Asia are adjusted down from 4.4% to 4.3% in 2023 and from 4.6% to 4.4% in 2024 after oil production in Azerbaijan fell more than expected.
  • Southeast Asia’s growth prospects are downgraded slightly from 4.7% to 4.6% in 2023 and from 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, reflecting weaker global demand for manufactured exports.
 

Inflation

Headline inflation eased toward pre-pandemic averages as supply-side pressures waned and monetary tightening took hold. It has trended down in all subregions this year along with fuel and food prices. Core inflation is more mixed. It remained elevated in many East and Southeast Asian economies because of higher input prices and as revived leisure activities pushed up prices for services, but it started to trend down in the Caucasus and Central Asia, partly reflecting base effects there.

  • Inflation in Caucasus and West Asia is forecast to remain elevated at 10.6% in 2023 and 7.8% in 2024.
  • Inflation forecasts for East Asia are sharply down to 1.3% in 2023 and slightly higher at 2.1% in 2024.
  • The 2023 inflation forecast for South Asia is kept at 8.1%, and the 2024 projection revised up markedly to 6.4%.
  • The inflation forecast for Southeast Asia is revised down for both years. Downgrades from 4.4% to 4.3% in 2023 and from 3.3% to 3.2% in 2024 reflect easing global commodity prices and tighter monetary policy.
  • Inflation is still forecast to moderate to 5.0% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024 in the Pacific subregion as a whole.
Inflation Rate Forecasts - Developing Asia
 

Publication and Links

Asian Development Bank Outlook July 2023

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023: Robust Growth with Moderating Inflation

The Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic and development issues in developing countries in Asia. This includes forecasting the inflation and gross domestic product growth rates of countries throughout the region, including the People’s Republic of China and India.