Nepal: Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis
The TA objective is to enhance both institutional and human resource capacity of key government agencies in developing and using macroeconomic models and improve the national statistical system.
Project Details
-
Project Officer
Tuladhar, Raju
South Asia Department
Request for information -
Country/Economy
Nepal -
Modality
- Technical Assistance
-
Sector
- Public sector management
| Project Name | Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis | ||||
| Project Number | 41126-012 | ||||
| Country / Economy | Nepal |
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| Project Status | Closed | ||||
| Project Type / Modality of Assistance | Technical Assistance |
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| Source of Funding / Amount |
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| Strategic Agendas | Inclusive economic growth |
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| Drivers of Change | Governance and capacity development |
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| Sector / Subsector | Public sector management / Economic affairs management |
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| Gender Equity and Mainstreaming | No gender elements | ||||
| Description | The TA objective is to enhance both institutional and human resource capacity of key government agencies in developing and using macroeconomic models and improve the national statistical system. | ||||
| Project Rationale and Linkage to Country/Regional Strategy | Institutional capacity for economic policy analysis in Nepal is weak and as a result, public policy formulation is often not based on a sound analytical foundation. The need for sound economic policy analysis has become even more critical over the years in view of the stagnating economic growth and for better understanding the evolving structure of Nepal?s economy, its increasing complexity and the interactions between different economic sectors. Economic policy analysis has also been constrained by Nepal?s weak national statistical system, particularly the lack of quality and timely macroeconomic data. Given the importance of reliable and timely macroeconomic data for policy analysis, ADB has also been assisting the Government in strengthening Nepal?s weak statistical system. Recent assistance in this respect includes: (i) TA 3451-NEP (completed in 2004): Strengthening the National Statistical System, which helped in developing a consolidated national statistical plan (CNSP), and improving compilation of the NA, agriculture statistics development and poverty monitoring, and (ii) TA 4460-NEP: Strengthening the National Accounts System (near completion), which supported migration of the national accounts to the System of National Accounts (SNA) 1993, benchmarking and rebasing the national accounts estimates, and development of a system of compiling quarterly national accounts. Also, a diagnostic study was conducted on Nepal?s statistical system under RETA 6333: Statistical Capacity Building in the Asia Pacific Region, which recommended adoption of the CNSP without further delay and identified a broad range of long-term statistical capacity building (SCB) needs of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS, the main statistical agency) and other Government agencies. |
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| Impact | Economic policies based on an improved statistical system (national accounts) and sound quantitative macroeconomic analysis. |
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| Project Outcome | |
|---|---|
| Description of Outcome | Component A: (i) A more conducive legal and institutional environment for improving the national statistical system. (ii) A system of QNAcompilation established. Component B: Macroeconomic tools developed for short- to medium-term macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. |
| Progress Toward Outcome | While the legal and institutional reforms are still underway, the system of compiling QNA data has been streamlined. NMEM is institutionalized and the DSGE model finalized. |
| Implementation Progress | |
| Description of Project Outputs | Component A: Enactment of the new Statistical Act, more autonomous CBS, and more functional National Statistical Council (NSC) Component A: Quarterly GDP estimates for FY2007 FY2010 Component B: Upgrade of the Nepal Macroeconomic Model (NMEM) Compoent B: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)-type model developed for Nepal Component B: User manual to undertake the quantitative macroeconomic analysis and forecasting |
| Status of Implementation Progress (Outputs, Activities, and Issues) | - Draft Statiscal Act being submitted to the Cabinet. - Quarterly GDP estimates for all sectors completed. - User manual to undertake the quantitative macroeconomic analysis and forecasting prepared. - DSGE model finalized and submitted to NRB. - Upgradation of the NMEM completed. |
| Geographical Location | |
| Summary of Environmental and Social Aspects | |
|---|---|
| Environmental Aspects | |
| Involuntary Resettlement | |
| Indigenous Peoples | |
| Stakeholder Communication, Participation, and Consultation | |
| During Project Design | The project was included in the country program on the request of the Government (mainly Central Bureau of Statistics and Nepal Rastra Bank). The TA was prepared in full consultation with the Government agencies. |
| During Project Implementation | Ongoing. |
| Business Opportunities | |
|---|---|
| Consulting Services | Individual Consultants will be recruited under the TA. Component A: Developing a System of Quarterly National Accounts National Accounts Expert (International, 4 person-months) National Accounts Expert (National, 5 person-months) Agriculture Statistician (National, 4 person-months) Component B: Macroeconomic Modeling Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist (International, 6 person-months) Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist (National, 5 person-months) Econometrician (National, 5 person-months) Information Technology Specialist (Nationial, 2 person-months) |
| Responsible ADB Officer | Tuladhar, Raju |
| Responsible ADB Department | South Asia Department |
| Responsible ADB Division | Nepal Resident Mission |
| Executing Agencies |
Central Bureau of Statistics Uttam Narayan Malla [email protected] Kathmandu Central Bureau of Statistics National Planning Commission Secretariat Ramshah Path, Thapathali Kathmandu, Nepal Nepal Rastra Bank Ram Sharan Kharel, [email protected] Kathmandu Nepal Rastra Bank Central Office Baluwatar, Kathmandu Nepal |
| Timetable | |
|---|---|
| Concept Clearance | 14 May 2008 |
| Fact Finding | 07 Jul 2008 to 25 Jul 2008 |
| MRM | - |
| Approval | 04 Nov 2008 |
| Last Review Mission | - |
| PDS Creation Date | 23 May 2008 |
| Last PDS Update | 28 Sep 2012 |
TA 7165-NEP
| Milestones | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approval | Signing Date | Effectivity Date | Closing | ||
| Original | Revised | Actual | |||
| 04 Nov 2008 | 26 Nov 2008 | 26 Nov 2008 | 31 Oct 2010 | 31 Aug 2011 | 30 Jun 2013 |
| Financing Plan/TA Utilization | Cumulative Disbursements | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADB | Cofinancing | Counterpart | Total | Date | Amount | |||
| Gov | Beneficiaries | Project Sponsor | Others | |||||
| 675,000.00 | 0.00 | 150,000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 825,000.00 | 17 Jun 2022 | 520,131.03 |
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| Title | Document Type | Document Date |
|---|---|---|
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis | TA Completion Reports | Sep 2013 |
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component A): Project Report | Documents Produced Under Grant/Loans/TA | Dec 2011 |
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component A): Final Report | Consultants' Reports | Sep 2011 |
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component B): Summary of Final Report on Nepalese DSGE Model | Consultants' Reports | Aug 2011 |
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component B): Upgraded Nepal Macro Economic Model | Consultants' Reports | Aug 2011 |
| Nepal Vegetable Crops Survey 2009-10: Analysis of Results | Documents Produced Under Grant/Loans/TA | Feb 2011 |
| Nepal Vegetable Crops Survey 2009-10: A Statistical Report | Documents Produced Under Grant/Loans/TA | Oct 2010 |
| Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis | Technical Assistance Reports | Nov 2008 |
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