The TA aims to strengthen Indonesia's economic early warning system (EWS) (i) through the development of an EWS blueprint based on best international practices; (ii) support activities of threshold development for EWS indicators and their integration into underlying econometric models (macroeconomic model, fiscal policy model, financial sector model, social impact analysis, and other task-related models); (iii) capacity development within Ministry of Finance to independently maintain the EWS database, to analyze ESW signals and to provide policy options containing identified risks; and (iv) support of international knowledge exchange on surveillance systems and better international collaboration
|Project Name||Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Early Warning System|
|Project Type / Modality of Assistance||Technical Assistance
|Source of Funding / Amount||
|Strategic Agendas||Environmentally sustainable growth
|Drivers of Change||Governance and capacity development
|Sector / Subsector||
Public sector management / Economic affairs management
|Gender Equity and Mainstreaming||No gender elements|
|Description||The TA aims to strengthen Indonesia's economic early warning system (EWS) (i) through the development of an EWS blueprint based on best international practices; (ii) support activities of threshold development for EWS indicators and their integration into underlying econometric models (macroeconomic model, fiscal policy model, financial sector model, social impact analysis, and other task-related models); (iii) capacity development within Ministry of Finance to independently maintain the EWS database, to analyze ESW signals and to provide policy options containing identified risks; and (iv) support of international knowledge exchange on surveillance systems and better international collaboration|
|Project Rationale and Linkage to Country/Regional Strategy||The Indonesia Country Strategy and Program (CSP) 2006-2009 aims to help the Government of Indonesia achieve its medium-term development plan (rencana pembanguan janka menengah, RPJM) 2005-2009 objectives of higher levels of pro-poor sustainable growth and achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The RPJM aims as a strategic goal to support growth through greater resource mobilization and weak risk management was identified as a key constraint. A financial EWS is one of the key parts of every country's economic surveillance system as large amounts of data sets from governmental and non-governmental financial agencies are being analyzed to determine their risks and to provide feedback mechanisms that country's economic policies could remain on track. The EWS alerts the government on various emerging financial vulnerabilities and offers a reasonable lead time for the government to react against emerging financial threats.|
|Impact||Macroeconomic monitoring and policy response system strengthened. The proposed TA aims to strengthen Indonesia's economic monitoring and fiscal policy response system through enhanced EWS. Performance targets include stabilization or improvements of country ratings by international rating organizations (Standard & Poor, Moody's and Fitch) in relation to officially announced government targets.|
|Description of Outcome||Improved quality of economic vulnerability reporting. It is expected that the Executing Agency, the Ministry of Finance, will obtain improved quality of economic vulnerability reporting which ultimately enhances its fiscal planning, response, and coordination role as well as improves forecasting mechanisms and risk assessment in budget documents.|
|Progress Toward Outcome||Implementation of the TA was succesfully implemented and competed in January-2014. The TA supported the Fiscal policy Office (FPO) to develop the blueprint of EWS+ in Indonesia, and at the same time, integrate Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) into the EWS+ system. The design for inter-agency cooperation was developed and can be used as the basis for a more comprehensive crisis management in Indonesia. The dashboards for the EWS+, which include the CMP, has also been developed, in which it integrates various aspects of the Indonesian economy, such as fiscal and banking sector, stock markets, and government debt. The dashboards can also provide timely information to the decision makers in the current and forecast conditions of the Indonesian economy. Therefore, the dashboards can serve as an important tool in inter-agency cooperation for crisis management in Indonesia. Moreover, the capacity building processes have developed the capacity of FPO MoF staffs in maintaining and developing the EWS+ system.|
|Description of Project Outputs||
Blueprint for a strengthened EWS developed
Strengthened and customized EWS
Strengthened regional partnership on early warning systems
Ministry of Finance staff operating the enhanced EWS independently
|Status of Implementation Progress (Outputs, Activities, and Issues)||The implemation of all components were completed. The scope of Component 2 (Strengthened and customized EWS) was extented to integrate the EWS into the Crisis Management Protocol. The scope of Component 3 was also expanded to include setting up the Economic Assistance Team to bring the results of EWS exercises into key policy making at Fiscal Policy Office.|
|Summary of Environmental and Social Aspects|
|Stakeholder Communication, Participation, and Consultation|
|During Project Design||Consultations took place with Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia in December 2008 and February 2009. A workshop had been organized by Ministry of Finance to outline the needs for the improvement of the EWS|
|During Project Implementation||Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance, as the EA, are actively engaged in the implementation of the TA.|
1. Blueprint development for a strengthened EWS. Consultancy input: One international macroeconomic advisor (5 person months, intermittent).
2. Strengthened and customized EWS.
Consultancy input: Two senior domestic fiscal management specialists (2x12 person months), one junior domestic fiscal management specialist (1 x 12 person months).
3. EWS capacity development for Ministry of Finance.
Consultancy input: One international senior economist and economic policy advisor (1 x 4 person months), one domestic capacity development specialist and trainer (1 x 4 person months).
4. International workshop on enhancing economic surveillance and collaboration.
Consultancy input: One junior domestic fiscal management specialist (1 x 12 person months)
|Responsible ADB Officer||Ginting, Edimon|
|Responsible ADB Department||Southeast Asia Department|
|Responsible ADB Division||Indonesia Resident Mission|
|Concept Clearance||30 Mar 2009|
|Fact Finding||26 Feb 2009 to 26 Feb 2009|
|Approval||21 Aug 2009|
|Last Review Mission||-|
|PDS Creation Date||03 Apr 2009|
|Last PDS Update||02 Apr 2014|
|Approval||Signing Date||Effectivity Date||Closing|
|21 Aug 2009||29 Oct 2009||29 Oct 2009||31 Jul 2011||31 Jan 2014||-|
|Financing Plan/TA Utilization||Cumulative Disbursements|
|0.00||500,000.00||50,000.00||0.00||0.00||0.00||550,000.00||21 Aug 2009||481,892.21|
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|Title||Document Type||Document Date|
|Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Early Warning System: Technical Assistance Completion Report||TA Completion Reports||Sep 2014|
|Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Early Warning System: Consultant's Report||Consultants' Reports||Aug 2009|
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