This TA will enhance planning capacity for climate change adaptation at national and local levels, and within vulnerable sectors and vulnerable population groups. The TA will:
- Establish a climate modeling facility in the national hydrometeorological agency
- Develop climate change projections (dynamical downscaling) and climate impact assessments on water resources, energy, agriculture, transport and social development
- Introduce climate change science modules in one university academic curriculum
- Train government officials of which 30% women on climate change risk management,
- Support a process to formulate national and local adaptation plans
- Develop a knowledge management system to collate and disseminate data and information on climate change
- Establish a small grant facility to support adaptation initiatives in local communities
- Develop and implement a monitoring, reporting and evaluation system to monitor progress and result under the PPCR
- Establish a national implementing entity to leverage funds for and implement adaptation projects.
|Project Rationale and Linkage to Country/Regional Strategy
Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of climate change in Central Asia , . Recognizing the country's high vulnerability to climate change, Tajikistan was chosen as one of the nine participating countries to the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). The Expert Group established under the PPCR to select developing countries from around the world ranked Tajikistan very high for its vulnerability to climate-induced disasters based on indicators that were strongly related to mortality and economic losses inferred from climate-related disasters. The capacity of institutions, communities and individuals to adapt to climate change was rated very low, based on the Human Development Index and other indicators strongly related to water and food security.
A recent study carried out by ADB and the Government of Tajikistan under the Technical Assistance TA7599 in the context of the PPCR shows that climate variability and extreme events are already a danger for Tajikistan. Higher temperatures and decreased snowfall experienced over the last few decades have affected droughts, avalanches, landslides, rockfalls and violent winds routinely destroy land, crops and infrastructure and, in the worst cases, lives. Future climate change will lead to further losses. Projected rise in temperature of up to 2o C by 2050 will result in glacial melt and early snow-melt leading to changes in the seasonality of runoff with consequent impacts on availability and stable supplies of water for agriculture, hydropower, and other uses including human consumption. Rise in temperature and changes in precipitation will increase the frequency of droughts, catastrophic flooding due to glacial lake outbursts, destabilizations of mountain slopes and more landslides and result in a progressive increase in economic losses and risk to the population, and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. These adverse effects will be compounded by a projected 67% population growth over the 21st century and will exacerbate underlying socio-economic and environmental constraints (land degradation, crumbling infrastructure, increasing feminization of poverty, low debt sustainability and limited institutional capacity) that already threaten the sustainability of Tajikistan s economic, social and human development.
Recent assessments and consultations carried out under the PPCR shows that gaps in the understanding of climate risks combined with the limited capacity of individuals and institutions for adaptation prevent Tajikistan from effectively anticipate and manage climate change. The following constraints were identified in the assessments and the consultations:
a. Data and information on current climate variability, future climate change and its impacts on communities, infrastructure and ecosystems are inadequate to inform decision making. Inadequate equipment for data collection, limited resources to acquire and maintain equipment, inadequacy of technical staff capacity and salaries to retain trained staff hinder the ability of responsible agencies to generate, store and analyze climate data to produce information for decision makers. In addition, climate data are not readily disseminated to stakeholders. Whilst current initiatives are addressing the need to improve the infrastructure for data collection, the use of data for weather forecast and climate modeling is extremely limited. The quality of information on climate change is not sufficient to meet the need of decision makers at the national, sub-national, and local level. Access to climate information is inadequate to support the design of measures aimed at reducing the adverse effects of climate change on priority sectors such as water resource management, energy, rural development, transport, and health. Women's access to information about climate change risks and options for adapting to climate change is poor, and information is often provided in ways which are not appropriate for them. Data and information that already exist is not used for scientific research aimed at understanding weather and climate patterns. Education and training on how to use available data to local experts who are already involved in hydrological and meteorological measurements is not sufficient to provide a sustained skill pool for weather forecasting and modeling.
b. Climate change risks are not integrated in development plans. Development projects in key sectors (water, agriculture, physical infrastructure) do not consider climate change risks and there are no modalities to facilitate such transformational change in development planning. There exists moderate knowledge on climate change risk management practice in key government agencies, but very little exists in some ministries and departments, and at the district and local levels. Most public officials are unfamiliar with tools, such as climate proofing, screening, economic analysis of climate adaptation options and cost-benefit analysis required to prioritize and allocate budget to adaptation measures. Public awareness of climate change is increasing but it remains low in local government agencies, particularly amongst women . Both government and nongovernment organizations (NGOs) lack adequate skill pool to support the implementation of structural measures, i.e. physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards such as droughts and floods, and non structural measures such as building codes, land use planning laws, research, information resource and public awareness programs. As a result, development projects cannot be formulated with the necessary considerations for design and engineering features that are responsive to climate changes risks in the country. Overlapping mandates among different agencies, inadequate coordination, meager fund flows and weak resource allocation mechanisms are major impediments to effective climate change risks management. There are no clear strategies or plans with clear targets and sources of funding to deal with climate change risks. Existing policies and plans such as the National Development Strategy, the Poverty Reduction Strategy and the National Climate Change Plan do not bar action, but neither strategy clearly links climate change to key climate sensitive production sectors and poverty alleviation goals, nor does it identify adaptation measures and targets. Monitoring and evaluation of current climate change policies and projects are absent.