The inception meeting was held in Beijing on 3-4 March 2014.
At the inception meeting, detailes of technical reports and time line for all activities has been discussed and agreed:
- Completed inception report will be submitted to the EA and ADB in April 2014
- Sample survey to investigate public opinion on potential pension reforms will be conducted in August 2014
- 1st draft of pension liabilities projection will be prepared by the end of August 2014
- 1st draft of technical reports will be prepared by the end of October 2014
- An interim workshop will be organized in 2nd half of November 2014
- A draft final report will be submitted to the EA and ADB in April 2014
- A final workshop is planned to be organized in May 2014.
Sample survey of public opinion will be conducted in three provinces.
As of September 2014:
The review mission was conducted on 2 September 2014. The EA and ADB discussed and agreed that a pension liability model needs to be updated and tailored to project pension liabilities based on policy scenarios to be produced by the TA. Since these adjustments would take more time than expected, the schedule of draft reports and an interim workshop has been revised as follows:
- The draft reports will be submitted to the EA and ADB by 31 October 2014.
- The liability projection programming will be completed by January 2015.
- An interim workshop will be held in March 2015.
As of March 2015:
- The projection model has been discussed among the experts and revised.
- Based on the revised model, the base line has been estimated (1st run).
- The 1st run of the base line estimation is under discussion among the team members.
- After the completion of the base line estimation, the policy options will be discussed and completed by incorporating the comments of the EA and ADB.
As of September 2015
- Review mission was conducted in August 2015. The agenda was the projection model and baseline projection. A draft baseline projections have been revised and all participants discussed the assumptions of the revised baseline projections and the projection model. In addition, potential policy options for increasing pensionable age were also discussed. Based on the confirmed projection model, pension liabilitiy for each potential policy option will be estimated.
- Based on the discussion at the review mission, the international and national pension liability specialists will confirm the baseline and projection model.
- Based on the confirmed baseline and projection model, the national expert will estimate the pension liability for each of the policy options to raise pensionable age.
- After those draft estimations are prepard, an interim workshop will be held to discuss the potential policy options and the estimation results. The interm workshop is expected to be held in late 2015 or early 2016.
As of March 2016:
- The interim workshop was held in Beijing in March 2016.
- The draft results of the liability projection were discussed at the interim workshop. The projection examines 6 scenarios on raising pensionable age.
- Other draft reports were also presented and discussed at the interim workshop.
- The project team will re-review the liability projections with an attention to the assumptions made for the baseline model.
- The final workshop is planned to be organized at the end of August 2016. All revised reports and results of the projection will be discussed at the final workshop.
- After the final workshop, all reports will be finalized by incorporating comments received at the final workshop.
- The project will be completed as planned in October 2016.
As of Sept 2016
- After the interim workshop, the project team and ADB had further discussions about the pension liability projections and related policy scenarios.
- All draft reports have been completed before the final workshop.
- TA final workshop and PRC-ADB 30th anniversary Seminar on Social Insurance and Elderly Care were organized on 26-27 Sept 2016.
- Regarding pension liability and a possible policy option of increasing pensionable age, experts discussed the pace of increasing pensionable age.
- All project reports will be completed in early October, and the TA will be completed in Oct 2016.