Tajikistan: Climate- and Disaster-Resilient Irrigation and Drainage Modernization in the Vakhsh River Basin Project

Agriculture, natural resources and rural development / Irrigation - Rural water policy, institutional and capacity development - Water-based natural resources management

Tajikistan is a landlocked and mountainous country with a population of 9.3 million, of which 44.7% was employed in agriculture and 26.3% lived below poverty line in 2019. The country has a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $822 and is vulnerable to economic shocks resulting from fluctuations in regional demand. Food insecurity is expected to increase because of limited capacity to respond to climate- and earthquake-induced shocks that will adversely affect agricultural production.

Tajikistan ranked 137th out of 153 countries on the global gender gap index, scoring low on women's economic participation and political empowerment. The proportion of women in the agricultural labor force increased from 54% in 1999 to more than 75% in 2020. Despite women's crucial role in agriculture and as primary water users, they do not have equal access to knowledge and inputs for improved agricultural productivity. They also have a limited role in decision-making on water management because of their low representation in water users' associations.

The Vakhsh river is the major tributary of the Amu Darya, which is the largest in Central Asia. Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Projections indicate that temperatures will increase by up to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050. Increases in the annual probability of meteorological drought are predicted from the current 3% to more than 25% by 2050. There is likely to be a shift in the Vakhsh river flow regime with high flows occurring earlier in the year, in May instead of June or July, due to the earlier melting of snow and ice. Changes in climatic conditions are projected to have severe effects on agriculture in Tajikistan. Temperature increases leading to heat stress and increased water demand for key crops, combined with increased drought incidence, will significantly reduce agricultural yields. The impacts of climate change will increase extreme flood events, resulting in higher risks of landslides and mudflows and potentially costing many lives and livelihoods.

Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, and landslides, potentially reducing irrigation system performance and agriculture productivity. Farmers and government agencies lack the knowledge and capacity to adapt agricultural and irrigation practices to changing climatic conditions and to natural hazards. . Irrigation consumes about 85% of the annual total water resources of Tajikistan. The total irrigated area is 761,523 ha, with one-third of land supplied with irrigation water by pumps. The I&D systems, which were developed prior to the country's independence in 1991, have deteriorated or are entirely defunct. Deteriorated I&D facilities and poor on-farm water management result in low crop yields, excessive water losses, waterlogging, and soil salinization.

Climate- and disaster-resilient I&D infrastructure modernized

Climate-adaptive and gender-responsive management and operation of I&D systems strengthened

Policy for sustainable water management strengthened