Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Supplement: Paths Diverge in Recovery from the Pandemic
This publication shares updated economic forecasts for Asia and the Pacific and outlines diverging projections for the region.
The overall forecast for Developing Asia (46 ADB member economies across Asia and the Pacific) is a contraction of 0.4% in 2020, less than the 0.7% envisaged in September. Growth will rebound to 6.8% in 2021, but output will remain below what was envisioned before the pandemic.
Projected 2020 growth in East Asia is upgraded from 1.3% to 1.6%. Growth in 2021 is still forecast at 7.0%. The earlier South Asia forecast of 6.8% contraction in 2020 is upgraded to 6.1%, and growth of 7.2% is expected in 2021. In Southeast Asia, contraction of 4.4% is now expected in 2020 (previously 3.8%), and growth in 2021 is anticipated at 5.2% instead of 5.5%. Central Asia is still projected to contract by 2.1% this year, and the Pacific economies by 6.1%.
- Developing Asia is now forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2020, less than the 0.7% contraction envisaged in the Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update in September. Growth will rebound to 6.8% in 2021, but prospects diverge within the region
- Projected growth in East Asia in 2020 is upgraded from 1.3% in the Update to 1.6% as the People’s Republic of China and Taipei,China recover more quickly than expected. Growth in 2021 is still forecast at 7.0%.
- The earlier South Asia forecast for 6.8% contraction is upgraded to 6.1% in line with an improved projection for India, as recovery accelerates, from 9.0% contraction to 8.0%. Growth will return in 2021, at 7.2% in South Asia and 8.0% in India.
- Recovery in Southeast Asia continues to lag as virus containment efforts in the larger economies hamper economic activity. Subregional forecasts are downgraded for 2020 from 3.8% contraction to 4.4%, and for 2021 from 5.5% growth to 5.2%.
- Growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Pacific are unchanged from September. Central Asia is still projected to contract by 2.1% this year, and the Pacific economies by 6.1% as global tourism continues to languish.
- Depressed demand and low oil prices will keep regional inflation in check at 2.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021.