Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Supplement: Paths Diverge in Recovery from the Pandemic

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The overall forecast for Developing Asia (46 ADB member economies across Asia and the Pacific) is a contraction of 0.4% in 2020, less than the 0.7% envisaged in September. Growth will rebound to 6.8% in 2021, but output will remain below what was envisioned before the pandemic.

Projected 2020 growth in East Asia is upgraded from 1.3% to 1.6%. Growth in 2021 is still forecast at 7.0%. The earlier South Asia forecast of 6.8% contraction in 2020 is upgraded to 6.1%, and growth of 7.2% is expected in 2021. In Southeast Asia, contraction of 4.4% is now expected in 2020 (previously 3.8%), and growth in 2021 is anticipated at 5.2% instead of 5.5%. Central Asia is still projected to contract by 2.1% this year, and the Pacific economies by 6.1%.

Highlights

• Developing Asia is now forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2020, less than the 0.7% contraction envisaged in the Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update in September. Growth will rebound to 6.8% in 2021, but prospects diverge within the region
• Projected growth in East Asia in 2020 is upgraded from 1.3% in the Update to 1.6% as the People’s Republic of China and Taipei,China recover more quickly than expected. Growth in 2021 is still forecast at 7.0%.
• The earlier South Asia forecast for 6.8% contraction is upgraded to 6.1% in line with an improved projection for India, as recovery accelerates, from 9.0% contraction to 8.0%. Growth will return in 2021, at 7.2% in South Asia and 8.0% in India.
• Recovery in Southeast Asia continues to lag as virus containment efforts in the larger economies hamper economic activity. Subregional forecasts are downgraded for 2020 from 3.8% contraction to 4.4%, and for 2021 from 5.5% growth to 5.2%.
• Growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Pacific are unchanged from September. Central Asia is still projected to contract by 2.1% this year, and the Pacific economies by 6.1% as global tourism continues to languish.
• Depressed demand and low oil prices will keep regional inflation in check at 2.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021.