Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Supplement: Recovery Continues

The main risk to the outlook remains a resurgence in cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), especially given the emergence of a fast-spreading variant. Other risks include a protracted correction in the housing market that could induce an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in the People's Republic of China, rising inflation, and persistent global supply disruption.

Highlights

• The economic growth forecasts for developing Asia are downgraded slightly to 7.0% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022, and the recent emergence of a highly mutated virus variant and a rise in infections globally indicate that the pandemic is far from over.
• East Asia’s growth forecasts are revised down marginally for both 2021 and 2022 as the People’s Republic of China is now expected to grow more slowly, by 8.0% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022.
• The growth forecast for South Asia is revised down to 8.6% for 2021, while the forecast for 2022 is maintained at 7.0%. India’s projection is lowered to 9.7% for fiscal 2021 but remains unchanged at 7.5% for 2022.
• After growth in Southeast Asia decelerated in the third quarter, the subregional forecast is revised down from 3.1% to 3.0% for 2021 but revised up to 5.1% for 2022.
• Central Asia’s growth prospects are substantially upgraded from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2021 and then from 4.2% to 4.4% for 2022. The Pacific is still forecast to contract by 0.6% in 2021 before growing by 4.7% in 2022.
• Regional inflation remains manageable, with the inflation forecast revised down a notch to 2.1% for 2021 and unchanged at 2.7% for 2022.