Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update: Asia in Global Value Chains

This Update shows whether these forecasts were met, explaining divergence between forecasts and the actual outturn, and firms the forecasts for the next 18 months or so.

Developing Asia is continuing along a stable growth path. Although US policy could still surprise markets the effect on developing Asia would be modest compared to the shock caused in 2013 by anticipated tightening. Demand does not threaten to reignite inflation, as regional economies continue to produce somewhat below capacity.

Highlights

• Regional growth is forecast to pick up from 6.1% in 2013 to 6.2% in 2014 and further to 6.4% in 2015.
• Growth in the major industrial economies slipped in the first half of 2014.
• Targeted measures to stabilize investment helped the the People's Republic of China sustain growth.
• India shows new promise of an economic turnaround.
• Growth slows in the main economies of Southeast Asia.
• Weakening food prices and stable oil prices keep inflation in check, remaining steady at 3.4% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015.
• Developing Asia’s current account balance remains stable, maintaining a surplus equal to 2.1% of regional GDP in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015.
• All Asian economies face the challenge of strengthening links to dynamic production chains.