Can East Asia Weather a US Slowdown?
East Asian growth is set to slow to a more moderate pace against the backdrop of a United States' slowdown. But the East Asian economy is expected to continue a still healthy expansion by historic
standards.
The ongoing slowdown in the economy of the United States (US) has sparked increasing concerns over the short-term growth prospect of East Asia. Using the Oxford Economics’ Global Model, this paper examines the possible impacts on East Asia of a sharper and longer US slowdown than is currently anticipated in the Asian Development Outlook 2007. The simulation results suggest that a US slowdown on its own would not meaningfully derail East Asia's strong growth. However, in case of significant spillovers from the US slowdown through financial instability and a hard landing in investments in the People’s Republic of China, different growth stories of East Asia may unfold.
Contents
- Abstract
- Introduction
- Asia's External Dependency
- Impact of a US Slowdown
- Concluding Remarks
- Appendix
- References
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