Climate Change, Food Security, and Socioeconomic Livelihood in Pacific Islands

The results of the study indicate that climate change will likely have significant negative impacts on agricultural output in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands. Even relatively positive projections suggest that the fishery sector of the three study countries cannot be relied upon to counterbalance the food security challenges brought about losses in agricultural output.

While food security to the year 2050 in Papua New Guinea and to a lesser extent Fiji already faces significant challenges, slowing growth in agricultural output and falling income growth rates resulting from climate change would only further exacerbate these challenges. Given the significant role in both employment and gross domestic product played by the agriculture sector in the three countries, adverse climate change-driven impacts are a particular concern. Beyond the negative impacts on crop yields and agricultural output, climate change will likely negatively impact incomes in the agriculture sector, food consumption levels, calorie availability, and the severity of child malnutrition in all three study countries.

The poor will no doubt be the most adversely affected by these changes, with an increase in the number of people at risk of hunger a likely outcome unless adaptation to climate change is undertaken. Maintaining “business-as-usual” in the agriculture sector would thus be a costly long-term policy response.

Findings

Investments in agriculture including improved crop management, more efficient use of fertilizer, and increased investment in agricultural research and extension services hold the potential to effectively eliminate the negative impacts of climate change on food security.

About this report

The report is based on a research study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) under the ADB regional technical assistance project on “Capacity Strengthening of the Pacific Island Developing Member Countries in Responding to Climate Change.”