Credit Risk Analysis of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Based on Thai Data | Asian Development Bank

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Credit Risk Analysis of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Based on Thai Data

Publication | December 2018
Credit Risk Analysis of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Based on Thai Data

SMEs make a significant structural contribution to the Thai economy.

SMEs often have severe difficulties raising money. Considering the bank-dominated characteristic of economies in Asia, banks are the main source of financing. In order to prevent the accumulation of non-performing loans in the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector, it is crucial for banks to distinguish healthy SMEs from risky ones. This chapter examines how a credit rating scheme for SMEs can be developed when access to other financial and non-financial ratios is not possible by using data on lending by banks to SMEs. We employ statistical techniques on five variables from a sample of 3,272 Thai SMEs and classify them into subgroups based on their financial health. The source of data used for the credit risk analysis in this research is the National Credit Bureau of Thailand. By employing these techniques, banks could reduce information asymmetry and consequently set interest rates and lending ceilings for SMEs. This would ease financing to healthy SMEs and reduce the number of non-performing loans to this important sector.

WORKING PAPER NO: 905