The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Developing Asia

Note: The analysis in this publication has been updated in the Special Topic included in the Asian Development Outlook 2020.

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Given the highly unpredictable nature of the outbreak, the range of scenarios explored in this brief suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion or 0.1% to 0.4% of global GDP, with a moderate case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2% of global GDP. Two-thirds of the impact falls on the PRC, where the outbreak has been concentrated so far. The estimated impact on individual developing Asian economies—and on sectors within these economies—is also provided.