Fiscal Space and Increasing Fiscal Resilience
It identifies factors that explain government spending and tax-policy cyclicality. On average, a more indebted government spends more in good times and cuts back spending indifferently compared with low-debt economies in bad times. The sovereign wealth funds of economies have a countercyclical effect in our estimation. The analysis depicts a significant economic impact of an interest rate rise on fiscal space: a 10% increase in the public debt–tax base ratio is associated with an upper bound of a 5.6% increase in government-spending procyclicality.
- Empirical Analysis
- Economic Significance and Policy Implications
- Appendix: Economy Codes