Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

Publication | October 2011

This paper examines the quantitative impact of population aging on economic growth in 12 developing Asian economies that make up the bulk of the region's population and output.

The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity.

The authors examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region’s population and output. They then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. The results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.


  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Population Aging in Developing Asia: Trends and Prospects
  • Sources of Growth
  • The Impact of Demographic Change on Developing Asia's Economic Growth
  • Projections of the Impact of Demographic Change
  • Quantitative Estimates of Past Demographic Dividends
  • Conclusions
  • References

Additional Details

  • Economics
  • Poverty
  • Inclusive growth
  • Social development and protection
  • Aging and the Elderly
  • WPS114119
  • 1655-5252 (Print)

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