Managing the Middle-Income Transition

Publication | March 2015

Greater reliance on efficiency and productivity improvement, innovation, and market competition are needed for the People’s Republic of China to make the transition to high income and avoid the middle income trap.

The growth model of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been based on high investments, exports, low-cost advantage, and government interventions. This model has successfully transformed the country from a low-income to an upper middle-income economy. However, the model has generated contradictions that could undermine future growth. Making the transition to high income requires greater reliance on efficiency and productivity improvement, innovation, and market competition.

Chapters focus on all aspects of the PRC’s economy including: the growth model, the role of government, industrial upgrading, the financial sector, fiscal management, human capital, the services sector, urbanization, labor market transitions, aging and the pension system, income inequality, managing external economic relations, and water scarcity.

This publication has been copublished with Edward Elgar.


  • Foreword
  • Preface
  • Part I: Overview and Synthesis
    • The Middle-income Transition Challenge: An Introduction
    • Sustaining Long-term Growth: Challenges and Risks
    • Avoiding the Middle-income Trap: Policy Options and Long-term Outlook
  • Part II: Reform and Rebalancing in National and Global Perspectives
    • From Economic Miracle to Normal Development
    • The Role of Government in Economic Growth
    • The Global Dimension of Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth
    • Lessons from Catch-up Growth in East Asia
    • Crises, Exchange Rate Management, and Inequality: Lessons from Latin America 
  • Part III: Macroeconomic and Structural Changes
    • Monetary and Fiscal Operations: A Look at the Options
    • Public Finance and Fiscal Sustainability
    • Industrial Upgrading: Experiences and Policy Lessons
    • Industrial Upgrading: Can Progress Continue?
    • Striving for a Strong Services Sector
    • Managing Urbanization
  • Part IV: Social, Demographic, and Environmental Change
    • Making Growth More Inclusive
    • Demographic Change and Its Consequences for the Labor Market
    • Education and Human Capital Development
    • Old-age Support and Protection
    • Managing Water Resources for Sustainable Growth
  • Index

Additional Details

  • Economics
  • Education
  • Governance and public sector management
  • Public financial management
  • Public administration, economic affairs, and policy
  • Industry and trade
  • Poverty
  • Inclusive growth
  • Social development and protection
  • Social protection
  • Social protection - labor and employment
  • Urban development
  • Water
  • China, People's Republic of
  • 592
  • 978-1-78347-769-2 (print)
  • 978-1-78347-770-8 (electronic)


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