Middle-Income Transitions: Trap or Myth?
The historical evidence presented in this paper indicates that economies move up across income groups. Historically, it has taken a “typical” economy 55 years to graduate from lower-middle income to upper-middle income. Likewise, the authors find that, historically, it has taken 15 years for an economy to graduate from upper-middle income to high income. The analysis implies that as of 2013, there were 10 (out of 39) lower-middle-income economies and 4 (out of 15) upper-middle-income economies that were experiencing slow transitions, i.e., above 55 and 15 years, respectively.
- Data and Middle-Income Thresholds
- Defining Middle-Income Transitions
- Middle-Income Transitions Today
- Conclusions: What Are We to Make of the Term Middle-Income Trap?