Projecting the Need for and Cost of Long-Term Care for Older Persons

Publication | February 2021

This paper aims to enhance the understanding, particularly of policy makers and those planning modeling studies, of using statistical models to project the need, demand, and cost of long-term care (LTC) services.

With the numbers of older persons in the Asia and Pacific region increasing rapidly, there is a growing urgency to develop and strengthen LTC support systems and services. The paper first outlines modeling and its importance. Second, it describes key concepts related to LTC need, demand, and measurement. Then, it identifies key issues to consider when designing and using models. A review of recent modeling studies is also summarized, drawing out lessons relevant to low- and middle- income countries.


  • Introduction
  • Understanding Modeling to Project Future Long-Term Care Need, Demand, Cost
  • Synthesis of Findings from Review of Modeling Studies
  • Conclusions
  • Recommendations

Additional Details

  • Health
  • Social development and protection
  • Aging and the Elderly
  • 26
  • 8.5 x 11
  • WPS210072-2

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