Pacific Economic Monitor - July 2016
This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor updates the 2016 and 2017 GDP growth and inflation projections ADB's Pacific developing member countries. The theme of the policy briefs in this issue is Fisheries in Pacific Economies.
Forecasts for global growth in 2016 have been lowered to 3.1%—the same rate as last year—due to weakness in demand, international trade, and capital flows, as well as demographic trends and lackluster productivity growth. Prospects for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have improved modestly during the first half of the year, with adjustment toward services and consumption—away from investment and manufacturing—but the IMF warns that the situation in many leading economies could further reduce global growth. Other major risk factors include the repercussions of the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union, tighter credit conditions, major exchange rate fluctuations, and further weakness in commodity markets.
- Weaker global outlook. Global growth forecasts for 2016 have been lowered to 3.1%. Although prospects for the PRC have improved modestly, developments following the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union suggest that there are significant risks to the global economic outlook. Low prices for energy and nonfuel commodities are supporting a low-inflation environment globally.
- Smaller Pacific economies support subregional growth. Most Pacific economies are unlikely to be significantly affected by global uncertainty and growth is forecast at 3.9% for 2016. Prospects for smaller economies have improved slightly, reflecting stronger than expected performance in tourism, fisheries, and construction. In contrast, the outlook for Fiji is weaker due to the impact of Cyclone Winston.
- Harnessing fisheries resources. Fisheries are among the most important resources for smaller island economies and have been heavily exploited. Through regional cooperation, Pacific economies have had some success in fisheries conservation and generating increased revenues from the sale of fishing licenses under the vessel day scheme. Prudent management of fishing license revenues has involved strengthening fiscal buffers and deposits to trust funds.
About the Pacific Economic Monitor
The Pacific Economic Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues. This bi-annual publication is produced by ADB with contributions from development partners and knowledge organizations engaged in economic analysis of the Pacific.
- The economic setting
- Country economic updates
- Policy briefs
- Capturing economic benefits from the Pacific's tuna resources
- Managing rising fisheries license revenues in the Pacific: A review of five countries receiving large inflows
- Pacific small-scale coastal fisheries: Strengthening sustainability, food production, and livelihoods
- Some options for enhancing the vessel day scheme
- Economic indicators