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Philippine Business Cycle Characterization: A Christiano–Fitzgerald Band Pass Filter Reassessment

Publication | August 2019
Philippine Business Cycle Characterization: A Christiano–Fitzgerald Band Pass Filter Reassessment

This study explores the key features and characteristics of business cycles in the Philippines, including the volatility of key macroeconomic variables.

It assesses the duration, amplitude, and slope of business cycles for the period 2003–2017 and looks at the characteristics of these cycles in terms of volatility, co-movement, and persistence. The study finds that broad money supply and investment are the most volatile macroeconomic variables while private consumption exhibits the least volatility. Inflation shows low volatility, which is attributed to the central bank’s inflation-targeting policy. Private consumption has the highest co-movement among the observed variables, while broad money has the least. The study also confirms that business cycle expansion phases are more rapid than contractions in the Philippines.

Contents 

  • Nontechnical Summary
  • Introduction
  • Empirical Methodology and Data
  • Stylized Characteristics of the Philippine Business Cycle
  • Empirical Analysis
  • Conclusion and Policy Implications