Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia
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What happens to Asia if it gets too old before getting rich? In this paper, the authors explore the possibility that Asia faces a middle-income trap due to demographic factors. They find that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap. Analyses show that support ratio—the ratio of workers to consumers—matters for economic growth. But as the economy grows, fertility declines, ultimately leading to low support ratios and a lower speed of convergence, creating conditions for economic stagnation.
- Structure of Demography-Drive Middle-Income Trap
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- What National Transfer Accounts Tell About Demography-Driven Middle-Income Trap
Ha, Joonkyung and Sang-Hyop Lee. 2018. "Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 54 (6): 1225–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1429263.
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