The PRC's Long-Run Growth through the Lens of the Export-Led Growth Model

Publication | August 2018

This analysis has important implications to understand the People's Republic of China's transition to a “New Normal” of a lower growth rate.

Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, this paper tests the proposition that the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades was a case of export-led growth. Results indicate that the PRC’s actual long-run growth is well approximated by its BOPE growth rate.

Contents 

  • Introduction
  • The Balance-of-Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate Model
  • Estimation Results of the People's Republic of China's Time-Varying Balance-of-Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate
  • How Relevant is the Balance-of-Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate for the People's Republic of China?
  • The Determinants of the People's Republic of China's Balance-of-Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate and the Income Elasticity of Imports: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
  • Conclusions

Additional Details

Authors
Type
Series
Subjects
  • Economics
  • Industry and trade
Countries
  • China, People's Republic of
Pages
  • 32
Dimensions
  • 8.5 x 11
SKU
  • WPS189511-2
ISSN
  • 2313-6537 (print)
  • 2313-6545 (electronic)

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