The People’s Republic of China’s Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

Publication | November 2014

A number of factors seem to signal that the recent decrease in People's Republic of China's growth rate may be structural, rather than temporary, in the sense that it reflects a permanent shift to a slower potential growth rate path.

This paper assesses the trajectory of the People's Republic of China's (PRC’s) potential growth rate during the last 30 years in order to understand the policy dilemmas that the PRC’s policymakers face. It evaluates the relevance of various possible constraints that may limit the country’s growth in the future, focusing on the effects of the slowdown in working-age population growth and on the long-term constraint imposed by the balance of payments equilibrium. It also devotes special attention to the role played by structural change, and assesses the implications of the increasing importance of the services sector for the PRC’s future growth.


  • Tables and Figures
  • Abstract
  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and the 13th Five-Year Plan
  • Actual, Natural, and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Rates
  • Estimates of the People’s Republic of China’s Natural and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Rates
  • Scenarios for the People's Republic of China’s Potential Growth During the 13th Five-Year Plan, 2016–2020
  • Conclusions: The People's Republic of China’s Potential Growth Prospects During the 13th Five-Year Plan and Implications for Policy
  • Appendix
  • References

Additional Details

  • Economics
  • China, People's Republic of
  • WPS147000-3
  • 2313-6537 (Print)
  • 2313-6545 (e-ISSN)

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