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Observations and Suggestions

Observations and Suggestions is a publication series produced by experts from inside and outside of ADB's East Asia Department. The policy notes are designed to provide information and advice on development issues to East Asia’s civil servants and policymakers. They are produced either on request from the Government or as an initiative of the East Asia Department on topics expected to emerge as policy or reform priorities.

《观察与建议》是一份由亚洲开发银行东亚局内部和外部专家编写的系列政策报告,旨在就优先发展问题向东亚的公务人员和高层决策者提供信息和建议。议题主要由政府提出特别请求或由东亚局发起,针对预期可能出现的政策或改革重点论题进行研究并给出建议。

Ажиглалт ба Санал цувралыг Зүүн Азийн улс орнуудын хөгжлийн асуудлаар төрийн албан хаагчид болон бодлого тодорхойлогчдод мэдээлэл, зөвлөгөө өгөх зорилгоор АХБ-ны Зүүн Азийн газрын болон бусад газрын мэргэжилтэн, шинжээчид бэлтгэн хэвлүүлдэг. Цаашдаа бодлогын болон шинэчлэлийн эн тэргүүнд тавигдах сэдвүүдийн хүрээнд Засгийн газрын хүсэлтээр эсвэл Зүүн Азийн газрын өөрийн санаачилгаар бэлтгэн гаргадаг.


  • Population Aging and Long-Term Health Care in the People's Republic of China Papers and Briefs | 28 Mar 2010

    Population Aging and Long-Term Health Care in the People's Republic of China

    This paper presents options to address the financing of long-term health care for the elderly in the People's Republic of China.

  • 锚定中国通货膨胀预期 Papers and Briefs | 01 Feb 2010

    锚定中国通货膨胀预期

    2009年,由于规模空前的货币扩张、货币政策的多重目标以及输入性通货膨胀的风险加大, 尽管存在产能过剩,物价指数保持负增长或很低水平,但通货膨胀预期却在不断上升。 通货膨胀预期既有可能是理性的也可能是非理性的,但如果不能妥善应对,都有可能引发实 际通货膨胀。国际经验表明,控制通货膨胀预期的最好方法就是锚定通货膨胀预期。为此, 可以采用汇率目标制、货币供应量目标制或通货膨胀目标制。国际经验表明,通货膨胀目标 制似乎最为有效。 中央银行的信誉对于有效锚定通货膨胀预期不可或缺,而中央银行的信誉来自于其独立性、 政策透明度以及严格的财政约束。 因此本文建议,在短期内,中国人民银行(央行)应公布可行的2010年信贷和货币供应量增 长目标,同时加强货币政策和财政政策的协调;而在中长期,中国应明确设定一个低通货膨 胀目标以锚定通货膨胀预期,提高政策透明度,拓宽信息发布渠道,加强央行的能力建设。
  • Anchoring Inflationary Expectations in PRC Papers and Briefs | 01 Feb 2010

    Anchoring Inflationary Expectations in PRC

    Inflationary expectations are growing in spite of existing overcapacity and negative or very low price indexes, due to the unprecedented monetary stimulus in 2009, the multiple goals of monetary policy, and the risk of imported inflation.
  • The Socioeconomic Implications of Population Aging in PRC (English and Chinese) Papers and Briefs | 08 Jan 2010

    The Socioeconomic Implications of Population Aging in PRC (English and Chinese)

    While the best-known dimension of aging relates to fiscal sustainability due to spiraling pension and health care costs, the repercussions of aging are wider. The structure of the labor market, the pattern of savings, and migration flows will change in an aging society. More worryingly, aging will ultimately constrain economic growth.
  • 经济增长放缓对社会性公共服务供给的影响 Papers and Briefs | 01 Jun 2009

    经济增长放缓对社会性公共服务供给的影响

    尽管最近经济增长放缓对政府财政增收带来较大压力,但中国政府还是出台了大规模的一揽子经济刺激计划和若干配套政策措施(如,为低收入群体提供保障性住房支持;在农村地区提供家电消费补贴;推进医药卫生体制改革;以及为失业的流动劳动者,尤指农民工,和高等院校应届毕业生提供培训和创造就业机会等)。这些基于为投资、社会服务和保险计划筹措资金的政策干预措施,有助于促使经济复苏和重新调整国家的增长模式。 在经济低迷时期,为社会性公共服务(教育和卫生)及社会保险(规避或减轻失业、健康、残疾、工伤以及年老等相关风险的计划)提供充足的战略资金,能避免人力资源退化,并有助于经济的较快复苏,以及为未来可持续发展奠定基础。 加强社会保险和社会安全网建设也有利于鼓励消费,从而推动经济恢复可持续增长。 政府应向社会服务和社会保险体系投入更多资金,特别是帮助那些因危机冲击而下岗失业的人员和就业困难的高校应届毕业生,促进经济尽快复苏。与此同时,在未来几年中,政府除了要解决以上问题外,还应致力于解决长期性的结构问题,如(1)采用创新、高效的机制来提供社会服务;(2)建立健全法律和政策框架,鼓励非政府部门提供社会服务,特别是在教育和医疗卫生 领域。
  • 发展服务业,助力中国经济再调整 Papers and Briefs | 01 Jun 2009

    发展服务业,助力中国经济再调整

    服务业是经济主要增长源的观点已被广泛认同。服务业不仅有助于提高生产效率,促进技术 进步和创新,而且其碳耗量相比制造业要低得多。 尽管制造业在未来若干年仍将是中国产业结构的主体,但通过适当的政策调整,服务业有潜 力成为经济增长的重要拉动力,并在缓解就业压力、提高生活水平、促进经济长期持续增长 等方面发挥作用。 本报告就中国向以服务业为导向的增长方式转型提供若干政策建议,如完善制度体系、减少 对制造业的激励、进一步开放金融业、改革劳动力市场、加大对教育和技能培训的投入、加 强知识产权保护等。
  • Rebalancing Growth in PRC: Services Sector Development Papers and Briefs | 01 Jun 2009

    Rebalancing Growth in PRC: Services Sector Development

    The services sector is widely recognized as a major source of growth. It plays a significant role in improving production efficiency, and promoting technical progress and innovation. Moreover, the carbon footprint of services production is generally much smaller than that of manufactures.
  • The Impact of the Economic Slowdown on the Public Provision of Social Services Papers and Briefs | 01 Jun 2009

    The Impact of the Economic Slowdown on the Public Provision of Social Services

    Despite revenue constraints caused by the recent economic downturn, the Government has initiated a massive economic stimulus package and several supplementary policy measures (support for low-income housing, subsidized consumption of appliances in rural areas, a health care reform program, and training and employment generation for laid-off migrant workers and fresh graduates). The policy interventions aim at financing investment, and social services and insurance programs that will induce economic recovery and rebalance the country's growth model.

  • 关于中国经济增长再调整的宏观经济政策建议 Papers and Briefs | 01 Apr 2009

    关于中国经济增长再调整的宏观经济政策建议

    近年来,高额的储蓄、高速的资本积累以及出口导向型增长,带来了高水平的经济增 长,并显著改善了人民的生活水平。然而,中国对投资、出口和资本密集型工业发展 的过分依赖,产生了经济发展的不平衡和结构性制约,其中包括消费水平偏低。不平 衡问题的加剧要求转变经济增长模式。 消费对经济增长的拉动作用已有所下降,而下降的大部分被净出口对经济增长的贡献 率的上升所取代,这增加了经济面对外部需求冲击的脆弱性。造成消费水平偏低的因 素很多,其中包括高储蓄率、工资比重下降、再分配机制不健全、政府转移支付减少、 投资收益低下、金融服务有限,以及缺乏符合中低收入阶层承受能力的住房供给等。 为实现向消费驱动和服务导向模式的均衡经济增长模式的转变,减少对出口增长依 赖,我们提出以下宏观经济政策建议:(1) 增加公共社会转移支付;(2) 深化金融产 业改革;(3) 劳动力市场改革;(4) 进一步发展服务业;(5) 增加消费信贷和抵押贷 款供给;(6)加强中央和地方政府之间的联系。
  • Rebalancing Growth in PRC: Macroeconomic Policy Recommendations Papers and Briefs | 01 Apr 2009

    Rebalancing Growth in PRC: Macroeconomic Policy Recommendations

    Years of high savings, fast capital accumulation and export-oriented growth have brought about high levels of economic growth and significantly improved living standards. However, the excessive reliance on investment, exports and capital-intensive industrial development have created imbalances and structural constraints in the economy, including low consumption levels. The scale of the imbalances calls for a revision of the growth model.

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