Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia
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This book analyzes the causes of the recent slowdown in the PRC and assesses the growth potential of the PRC economy, the conditions under which that potential growth could be realized, and the implications for other Asian economies.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been growing at an unprecedented rate since economic reforms were initiated in 1978, achieving an average annual real GDP growth rate of 9.7% over the entire period through 2015. As a consequence, the PRC has achieved a remarkably successful transition from one of the poorest countries to upper middle-income status in just over one generation. However, there are concerns that the PRC’s strong growth streak recently has run out of steam, showing a marked deceleration since 2010. The key question is whether the PRC’s economy will continue to slow and be trapped in slow growth, or whether its growth can re-accelerate. The chapters in this volume focus on the root causes of the current slowdown and, in light of these, assess the growth potential of the PRC’s economy, the conditions under which that potential growth could be realized, and the implications for other Asian economies.
Contents
- Chapter 1: Introduction by Justin Yifu Lin, Guanghua Wan, and Peter J. Morgan
- Chapter 2: Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to the People’s Republic of China by Robert J. Barro
- Chapter 3: Will the People’s Republic of China Be Able to Avoid the Japan Syndrome? by Yang Yao
- Chapter 4: The People’s Republic of China’s Slowdown: Lessons from Japan’s Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan’s Economy by Kyoji Fukao and Tangjun Yuan
- Chapter 5: The Republic of Korea’s Economic Growth and Catch-Up: Implications for the People’s Republic of China by Jong-Wha Lee
- Chapter 6: On the Sustainability of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Model—A Productivity Perspective by Harry X. Wu
- Chapter 7: Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or A Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis by Chong–En Bai and Qiong Zhang
- Chapter 8: Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium- to Long-term Growth in the People’s Republic of China by Justin Yifu Lin, Guanghua Wan, and Peter J. Morgan
- Chapter 9: Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis by Fan Zhai and Peter Morgan
- Chapter 10: Spatial Estimation of the Nexus between the People’s Republic of China’s Foreign Direct Investment and ASEAN’s Growth by Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama
- Chapter 11: Investigating How a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Affects Its Trading Partners and How Asia Can Mitigate the Impact by Willem Thorbecke
- Chapter 12: Estimating the Impact of Slower People’s Republic of China Growth on the Asia and the Pacific Region: A Global Vector Autoregression Model Approach by Tomoo Inoue, Demet Kaya, and Hitoshi Ohshige
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