A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy

Publication | January 2005

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. The model demonstrates good forecasting capacity and versatile potential for policy simulations.

This paper describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and labor. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations. The tracking performance of the model, both within-sample and out-of-sample, is evaluated and found satisfactory. Policy simulations indicate it is crucial that the Philippine government address its debt problem for it to achieve higher future growth. Oil price simulations also show the country is highly vulnerable to external shocks.

Contents 

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Brief Overview of the Economy and the Data
  • The Structure of the Model
  • Simulation Experiments
  • Conclusion
  • Appendix: Specification and structure of the model
  • References

Additional Details

Authors
Type
Series
Subjects
  • Economics
Countries
  • Philippines
ISSN
  • 1655-5252 (Print)

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