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Updated Assessment of the Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19

Publication | May 2020
Updated Assessment of the Potential  Economic Impact of COVID-19

This brief presents new projections on the economic impact of COVID-19 and highlights policy implications.

New analysis using the Global Trade Analysis Project model estimates that the global economic impact of COVID-19 could reach $5.8 trillion (6.4% of global GDP) under a 3-month containment scenario, and $8.8 trillion (9.7% of global GDP) under a 6-month containment scenario. It also updates estimates for Asia and the Pacific.

The brief highlights that policy interventions could reduce the impact of COVID-19 by 30% under the short containment scenario and by 40% under the long containment scenario. It notes that strong income and employment protection are crucial.