National Geospatial Database for Maldives to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation in Development Planning (ADB Brief No. 117)

Maldives is a developing state composed of 26 natural atolls with about 1,192 small coral islands spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometers in the Indian Ocean. The country is divided into 20 administrative regions, each with a local administrative authority governed by the central government. With some of the world’s most beautiful beaches, Maldives has relied on high-end tourism to expand its economy over recent decades and gained middle-income status with the highest per capita income in South Asia.1

• The Republic of Maldives is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, yet it is among the most vulnerable to climate change. The country needs to ensure the sustainable management of natural resources in spite of the impacts and consequences of climate change.
• The government's environmental management and resource conservation efforts that began in the early 1990s have been constrained by a lack of relevant data and information.
• This brief presents the development of a geospatial database and maps to help Maldives (i) assess disaster risks and impacts; (ii) reduce these by strengthening the design of programs and policies; and (iii) mainstream climate change adaptation in development planning.
• A geospatial database on coastal and marine ecosystems that includes climate risk assessment information makes it feasible to screen for climate risks in development projects and programs at national and subnational levels.

Liping Zheng
Advisor Asian Development Bank National Consultant Team: Ahmed Jameel

Integrated Coastal Zone Management Specialist
Faruhath Jameel

Geographic Information Systems Specialist and Team Leader
Hussain Naeem

Mahmood Riyaz
Climate Change Risk Assessment Specialist BACKGROUND Maldives is a developing state composed of 26 natural atolls with about 1,192 small coral islands spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometers in the Indian Ocean. The country is divided into 20 administrative regions, each with a local administrative authority governed by the central government. With some of the world's most beautiful beaches, Maldives has relied on high-end tourism to expand its economy over recent decades and gained middle-income status with the highest per capita income in South Asia. 1 Maldives is characterized by extremely low elevations and, as one of the most geographically dispersed countries in the world, it is among the most vulnerable to climate change. Recognized as the seventh-largest in the world, the country's coral reefs and associated ecosystems are major natural resources and key foundations for food security and means of livelihood. They are highly dynamic, as directional shifts within the shoreline are dependent on seasonal conditions. But they are also extremely vulnerable to human activities and infrastructure development projects. This policy brief summarizes the consultants' reports from the ADB-supported country initiative.

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS, POLICIES, AND REGULATIONS ON COASTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
The project identified two issues critical to natural resource and environmental management in Maldives: • The lack of systematized and readily available data on natural resources and limited related institutional and human resource capacity • The absence of proper natural resource management programs or plans, especially for coastal resources Without a law on coastal protection and management, the compounding situation involves a fragmented institutional framework in which different institutions at the local and national levels have overlapping roles and responsibilities.
The Government of Maldives, however, has expressed its commitment to develop environmental policies and regulations for sustainable marine and coastal resources management.
Governing policies, plans, and programs. Legislative framework. The government also enacted a number of laws and regulations governing environmental protection and management in Maldives (Table 1).

DESIGNING THE COASTAL AND MARINE GEOSPATIAL DATABASE
Marine and coastal environments play a vital role in regulating the global climate via carbon and water cycles. Rising temperatures and sea levels, ocean acidification, increases in storm severity, and other climate change scenarios and extreme weather events represent significant pressures on coastal and marine ecosystems. A comprehensive geospatial database of these ecosystems' features and services, therefore, needs to be established in Maldives. A geospatial database is a common data storage and management framework within a geographical information system (GIS). In Maldives, it can help • demonstrate and communicate the importance of ecosystems and their interrelationships; • support the effective monitoring of ecosystem changes; • guide national development plans, policies, programs, and project appraisals; • set priorities in plans within a sector or across different sectors; • support green national and corporate accounting; • set a framework to establish market-based instruments, such as taxes, charges, fees, fines, penalties, subsidies, incentives, and tradable permit schemes; and • determine liability and compensation in environmental litigation.
Establishing a geospatial database on coastal and marine ecosystems that includes relevant climate risk assessment information makes it feasible to screen for climate risks in development projects and programs at the national and subnational level.
The geospatial coastal and marine ecosystems and climate change database prepared for Maldives is a comprehensive data set based on SARD's climate risk screening framework and decision support system. It consists of six subcomponents or data layers on basic GIS data-hazards (climate scenarios and geophysical hazards), exposures, vulnerabilities, risks, and impact, or "HEVRI": • Hazards (H) or threats are events or conditions that may cause harm (i.e., loss and damage) to a system (e.g., community, project).
• Exposure (E) is the extent to which elements and spatial units are affected by climate, geophysical, ecological, and/or artificial hazards.
• Vulnerability (V) is the degree to which elements and spatial units will be responsive to, may recover from, or will be able to cope with and adapt to hazards.
• Potential risk (R) or likely impact of a climate event on a system is a function of hazards, exposures, and associated vulnerabilities. This relationship of variables may be expressed as: R ~ f (H, E, V).
• Impact (I), as a component, gathers actual archival spatial data sets that enable weighting of HEVs in the future.

Geophysical Hazards
Hydrometeorological multihazard maps for atolls and islands Wave, rain, wind (flood) hazard maps for atolls and islands Rain (flood) for atolls and islands Wind, wave (storm) hazard maps for atolls Cyclone wind hazard zones Surge hazard Mean annual sea surface height (in meters) from GFDL in the 2080s over different atolls and atoll locations Seismic hazard, tsunami hazard Islands affected by beach and/or coastal erosion Udha (swell wave) hazard map for atolls and islands The Manila Observatory is the regional TA's clearinghouse for remote sensing and GIS matters, including spatial knowledge development and management for decision support; guidance on and coordination of data gathering and mapping activities in the developing member countries of ADB; setting guidelines; review of maps and associated files; management of SARD's climate risk screening and decision support system; and development of value-added products and instruments. The Manila Observatory is a nonprofit research institute founded in 1865 and housed at the Ateneo de Manila University in Quezon City, Philippines.
The figure details the data and information acquired on the coastal and marine ecosystems of Maldives under each geospatial database subcomponent.
Maps of natural hazards in coastal and marine ecosystems were not readily available during activities under ADB's TA. There were studies on physical, socioeconomic, and human vulnerability, but most were technical reports rather than spatial data sets and maps. The required maps, spatial data, and information shown in the figure were obtained from government agencies and relevant sources. These were reviewed, processed, and standardized to conform to file naming protocols, metadata, and mapping guidelines established for the regional TA project. 4

OPERATIONALIZING THE CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM IN PROPOSED INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Climate and disaster risk screening or assessment is a systematic process of identifying climate and disaster-related risks in development projects. It evaluates how they may affect a project's life span and efficacy and recommends adaptation options to address significant climate risks, thus sustaining the project's planned benefits. The geospatial database and maps described in the previous section are important inputs enabling localized (project-and site-specific) climate risk screening.
SARD's climate risk screening framework was applied on three environment-related projects in Kulhudhuffushi, Fuvahmulah, and Thinadhoo using the described geospatial database and generated maps. The projects were selected in consultation with the MOE, based on the following criteria: • geographic dispersion; • an island's population size; • type and size of an infrastructure development project; • proximity to environmentally sensitive areas; • socioeconomic importance, impact, and needs; and • frequency and commonalities across projects in Maldives. Table 2 summarizes the key features of the three development projects and the findings after evaluating them for climate change risks and natural hazards. The most relevant climate risks and hazards were sea level rise, rainfall-induced flooding, storm surge, tsunamis, and udha (swell waves). Earthquakes, forest fires, heat waves, and droughts were seen to have low to no impact. The design of the proposed development projects should, therefore, incorporate components and activities addressing those climate risks and hazards found significant.

WAYS FORWARD
The vulnerability of Maldives to climate change and natural hazards could prove detrimental to its pursuit of sustainable socioeconomic development. However, it should be seen as a challenge and opportunity to prepare a master plan that will maximize and sustain development benefits. The aforementioned discussions have shown that geospatial databases and maps are essential in evaluating climate change and associated disaster risks and impacts as well as formulating strategies and options to reduce, if not eliminate, risks.
The following initiatives are necessary to strengthen and expand the preliminary geospatial database established through ADB's regional TA as well as to formalize a climate risk screening and decision support system for Maldives. Geospatial databases should be given legal status to make their application compulsory in designing investment projects and formulating development policies. For efficiency, existing relevant regulations such as the Environmental Protection and Preservation Act can be amended to incorporate clauses requiring the application of geospatial databases.
The establishment, improvement, and sustainability of the initial geospatial database will also benefit from the following set of actions: • The Maldives Land and Survey Authority needs to urgently adopt a National Geodetic Datum and a National Projected Coordinate System (National Grid) for mapping via GIS application. The datum transformation methods and parameters must be published to guide data collection and ensure its accuracy.
• Design and introduce a spatial data management policy for Maldives that will address data sharing requirements and arrangements among government ministries, departments, and agencies. This can be initially adopted for investment or development projects under the Public Sector Investment Programme.
• Put together a set of standards and specifications for identifying, collecting, and managing spatial and other relevant data and information to guide the content, design, and structure of databases. A similar set of protocols will also be useful in preparing the associated maps, especially in terms of meeting data and information requirements for policy and decisionmaking and development planning and implementation.
• Design geospatial databases to allow for ample flexibility for wider practical application and better utilization that can support similar assessment activities and/or monitoring exercises, such as the environment impact assessments, resource surveys and inventories, and socio-environmental monitoring. Current regulations on environmental monitoring activities could be amended to ensure that data collection and processing follow GIS standards and protocols.
Promoting the use of remote sensing GIS-based databases in Maldives will require building or enhancing institutional and human resource capacities in key government agencies (e.g., Environmental Protection Agency, Maldives Land and Survey Authority, Marine Research Institute, MOE, and National Disaster Management Centre) and other relevant stakeholders including nongovernment organizations and research and academic communities. The design of coastal protection structures should consider that maximum storm tide or surge can reach 2.3 m above mean sea level in the eastern islands of Maldives.
Conduct further detailed assessments of potential coastal erosion and related issues (e.g., sedimentation, saltwater intrusion, degradation of water quality) that may counter development.
Thinadhoo Island, located in the Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll, on the western ridge of Huvadhu Atoll The island, which has reclaimed several times, spans 118.8 ha with a population of 5,268 as of 2014. Its outer ridges are higher than the inner center, forming an inward slope.

Thinadhoo Drainage and Groundwater Recharge Improvement Project
Climate risks • Flooding induced by wave winds and rains (high) • Storm surge (medium) • Cyclone winds (low) • Heat wave (low) Natural hazards • Earthquake (moderate) • Udha (swell waves) • Sea level rise (high) • Tsunamis (high) The water table of the island is very low, which might require pumping out large amounts of water (dewatering) during the construction period. This will, however, impact on the availability and quality of (potable) groundwater in the island.
At the time of activities under the Asian Development Bank's technical assistance, a road development project was scheduled to start. The drainage development project must be executed simultaneously with the road development project. ha = hectare, km = kilometer, m = meter. Source: Asian Development Bank. Capacity building will include providing critical spatial databases, hardware and software, personnel, systems protocols, and curriculum development, and then tapping opportunities for skills development (degree or non-degree training), among others. This will also encourage and strengthen interagency collaboration and coordination for planning, monitoring, and evaluating development initiatives on the local, regional, and national levels, including those meant to address the impact and consequences of changing climate patterns and extreme weather events.