Economic forecasts have since been updated

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022: Key Messages

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has heightened uncertainty and unsettled commodity markets.
The pandemic persists, fueled by the Omicron variant. Milder health impacts and vaccination progress have allowed economies to remain more open than in previous waves.
GDP in the region will expand by 5.2% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023, on continued recovery in domestic demand and solid exports. Inflation will rise to 3.7% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023.
Risks include escalation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, financial instability triggered by the Fed’s aggressive tightening, emergence of more lethal COVID-19 variants, and disruptions associated with the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) current outbreaks.
The theme chapter shows how developing Asia must mobilize taxes for development, and provides policy solutions consistent with economy-specific circumstances and priorities.

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Developing Asia Outlook

GDP growth in developing Asia is expected to stay strong, at 5.2% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023. The pace of the recovery, however, varies across subregions. But in general, regional growth is being supported by a robust recovery in domestic demand in economies that are continuing to catch up with their pre-pandemic trend, particularly in South Asia. Here growth will remain strong in 2022 at a forecast 7.0%, accelerating to 7.4% in 2023. East Asia almost converged to its pre-pandemic trend in 2021 and growth rates are expected to normalize to 4.7% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023. Growth rates in the other subregions will return to their pre-pandemic averages this year or next.

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People's Republic of China GDP Forecasts

Chief Economist interview

Chief Economist Albert Park discusses developing Asia's latest economic outlook and the risks involved, including escalating global geopolitical tensions, tightening financial conditions, and COVID-19’s continued threat.

Download data: Part 1 - Recovery Continues Amid Global Headwinds

Growth Outlook by Subregion

Inflation

Inflation in developing Asia stayed below the global trend in 2021, but is expected to rise. Because of relatively low food inflation, less severe supply disruptions, and the incomplete recovery, regional inflation remained moderate at 2.5% last year. Price pressures were less broad-based than in advanced economies, including the US where inflation averaged 4.3%, and emerging economies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where prices increased by 9.3% and 10.7%, respectively. Inflation in developing Asia this year and next will be driven by continuing recovery and elevated energy and commodity prices. The regional inflation rate is forecast to rise to 3.7% in 2022, before dipping to 3.1% in 2023. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate in all subregions but the Caucasus and Central Asia. Monetary authorities should keep a close watch for incipient inflationary pressures.

Download data: Inflation Rate in Asia and the Pacific

Inflation Rate Forecasts - Developing Asia

The Economic Fallout of the Russian Invasion Will Most Affect the Caucasus and Central Asia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the global economic outlook and greatly amplified uncertainty for a world economy still contending with COVID-19. The war’s outbreak in late February severely disrupted global economic conditions. Shockwaves have been felt in financial and commodity markets, and energy and food prices have spiked sharply and threaten to remain elevated or rise further. The highly uncertain outcome of the invasion is an additional hurdle for developing Asia’s economies, many of which are still grappling with COVID-19.

The direct fallout from the invasion will likely be limited for developing Asia, except in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Indeed, the limited exposure will curtail the direct impact of the war in most of the region, but the effects will be large for the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as Mongolia, which all have close trade and financial linkages with the Russian Federation. Declining remittances from Russia will weigh on the external balances of economies heavily reliant on these inflows.

Indirect effects will be felt across the region, through higher energy and food prices.

Oil and natural gas prices rose sharply following the invasion, and they are expected to remain elevated this year. Energy bills will rise for energy importers, pushing inflation up and weighing on demand. Energy exporters will benefit from rising prices. Russia and Ukraine are also key producers of sunflower seed oil, wheat, barley, corn, and fertilizers. And global prices for these products and certain substitutes have surged. Limited access to Black Sea ports and a disrupted spring planting season in Ukraine will keep prices high throughout the year. International sanctions might also affect the availability of base metals, including aluminum, nickel, palladium, and titanium, from Russia, a key exporter of these metals.

Further escalation or a prolonged war could have a more lasting effect on global sentiment and commodity markets.

This would further delay the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Heightened risk could hit consumer, producer, and investor confidence, hurting developing Asia’s exports. A flight to safety could spur capital outflows from emerging markets, compounding the tighter financial conditions from the US Federal Reserve raising its policy rate.

Download data: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Falling Further Behind: The Cost of COVID-19 School Closures by Gender and Wealth

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Theme Chapter: Mobilizing Taxes for Development

Developing Asia must mobilize taxes and expenditure for sustainable development.

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals for a greener and more inclusive future requires vast public spending. While more efficient spending can free up some fiscal resources, much greater resources are needed to promote inclusive development in earnest. Tax revenue was gradually rising in the region before the COVID-19 pandemic but was still comparatively low. Restoring fiscal sustainability after COVID-19 adds to the urgency of making all forms of fiscal resource mobilization more effective, especially taxes.

The region needs to augment fiscal space, not least through higher tax revenue.

Estimates that benchmark current tax revenue against key economic characteristics suggest that countries in developing Asia could increase tax revenue from a pre-pandemic average of around 16% of GDP by, on average, 3–4 percentage points. Options to strengthen revenues depend on country circumstances, but two priorities with broad promise are better optimization of tax expenditures and more efficient collection of value-added tax (VAT), including appropriate taxes on the fast-growing digital economy. In addition, strengthening personal income and property taxes can raise additional revenue and make tax systems more progressive.

Green and health taxes contribute to both revenue and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Environmental tax instruments continue to grow and positively guide investment and consumption in developing Asia. Some regional governments have long experience in levying environmental taxes, notably on pollutions and fossil fuels. More recently, Asian economies have actively explored carbon pricing instruments to curb emissions. The region can draw valuable lessons from early adopters, especially by ensuring sufficiently high tax rates and pollution prices and effective monitoring, reporting, and verification systems. Higher corrective taxes, primarily on alcohol or tobacco, can raise additional tax revenue estimated at around 0.6% of GDP while improving health outcomes and cutting medical costs.

Reducing informality and broader tax-lifting reforms is hard but achievable.

New analysis finds that reducing business registration costs can expand the share of the formal sector in the whole economy and the taxes it pays. Tax reform to boost revenue may be politically challenging, but global experience shows that strong leadership can enable success. Effective strategies strengthen tax administration, including through better use of information and communication technology, and improve taxpayer morale by, for example, improving the quality of public spending.

There is an urgent need to mobilize resources in developing Asia, not just to restore fiscal sustainability after COVID-19, but also to fund the vast public spending needed to build a more inclusive and sustainable future for the region.

More on the theme chapter Read the Background Papers

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